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What the Debate Snap Polls Looked Like this Morning

We are correctly warned by knowledgeable election-watchers not to put much trust in instant polls conducted immediately after debates as they may tend to have screwy samples, but seeing a collection of seven of them all trending in the same direction, confirms what I sensed during and after last night’s tilt between President Obama and Mitt Romney: the president was a big-time winner. Please look at this screenshot I made of a tweet by @MiddleAmericaMS, whom I thank for collecting this info. Averaging the margin by which PBO won all 7 of these surveys yields a definitive 23-point winning gap.

Mitt Was Dishonest On How He Appointed Women to his MA Cabinet

Not only did Mitt utter that ridiculous expression “Binders full of women,” even more substantively he fibbed in claiming that he requested his gubernatorial staff find women for him to consider for his incoming administration. David Bernstein has written about this overnight in a Boston Phoenix column:

Not a true story.

What actually happened was that in 2002 — prior to the election, not even knowing yet whether it would be a Republican or Democratic administration–a bipartisan group of women in Massachusetts formed MassGAP to address the problem of few women in senior leadership positions in state government. There were more than 40 organizations involved with the Massachusetts Women’s Political Caucus (also bipartisan) as the lead sponsor. . . .

Secondly, a UMass-Boston study found that the percentage of senior-level appointed positions held by women actually declined throughout the Romney administration, from 30.0% prior to his taking office, to 29.7% in July 2004, to 27.6% near the end of his term in November 2006. (It then began rapidly rising when Deval Patrick took office.)
Third, note that in Romney’s story as he tells it, this man who had led and consulted for businesses for 25 years didn’t know any qualified women, or know where to find any qualified women. So what does that say?

Because of the humor Mitt inadvertently his absurd image that evoked women somehow enmeshed in binders–which instantly grew into a hashtag and trending topic on Twitter–the saliency of his remark is likely to be heightened the fact he didn’t actually make a proactive effort to hire women, and didn’t even tell the truth in relating the (bogus) story.

H/t TPM for tipping me to Bernstein’s column.

How PBO Won Debate #2

I thought tonight’s tilt was a clear win for President Obama. On temperament, on substance, on connecting with the voter questioners, he was dominating and persuasive. And Romney’s utter failure of clarity on Libya gives a great set-up for the president leading in to the third and final contest, where the two men will be seated at a table in front of Bob Schieffer discussing foreign policy. Below is my Twitter feed from during tonight’s debate, from the end of the evening, on down to the beginning.

Tweets
Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
Wow, what a diff bet Debate 1 & 2! PBO was dominating, tough&strong while Mitt was testy&unappealing. A clear win for the Pres! ‪#obama2012‬

David Wilk ‏@dwilk
Chris Matthews: “‪#Romney‬ is like the guy who won’t turn off his cell phone in the plane” accurate and telling. Arrogance of monied power.
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
Ann Romney looks stricken. ‪#Obama2012‬ ‪@ofadebates‬

Michelle Goldberg ‏@michelleinbklyn
Is it just me or was that debate as bad for Romney as the first one was for Obama?
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Andrew Sullivan ‏@sullydish
Mitt’s answer to easiest question imaginable was so sad. He boasted of universal healthcare as sign of his compassion. ‪http://thebea.st/V7xk8A ‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

27mDan Froomkin ‏@froomkin
Big finish for Obama, hanging Romney on his 47 percent comment, and no time for rebuttal
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Ryan Chapman ‏@chapmanchapman
Great last question, really. Condenses all those ads & speeches into one response. ‪#debates‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

mmichaelhirsh ‏@michaelphirsh
Whoa. Obama saves his 47 percent ref for last … smart, effective. And no chance for comeback. He wins, no question.
Retweeted by Philip Turner

The New Yorker ‏@NewYorker
RT ‪@tadfriend‬: Obama is better when he gets angry, as he did on the LIbya question. Romney is worse. ‪http://nyr.kr/S2kXql ‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd
Romney hasn’t been same since the Libya question and “act of terror” mistake
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Ted Strickland ‏@Ted_Strickland
The contrast between the President & Romney is stark & the POTUS made it crystal clear in tonight’s debate he is the choice‪#TeamBarack‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
‪@ofadebate‬ ‪#Obama2012‬ In addition to being smarmy tonight, Mitt’s been really boring. His answers are dull. PBO’s been sharp by comparison.

ben schwartz ‏@benschwartzy
“Please proceed, governor” is the new “fuck you.”
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
‪#Obama2012‬ ‪@ofadebates‬ Is there still time for the 47% to come up? Please . . .

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
“Self-deportation.” Mitt won’t own the expression.

Angela Baker ‏@bakerac1
yes! ‪@RomneysBinder‬ is already a ‪@Twitter‬ handle
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Andrew Rice ‏@riceid
Romney makes finding qualified women for executive jobs sound like taking an arduous expedition into the rainforest
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
Mitt’s little tantrums show him in a very unappealing light.‪@ofadebates‬ ‪#Obama2012‬

rachelsklar ‏@rachelsklar
YEAH KATHERINE FENTON! ‪#LilyLedbetter‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
“Binders full of women.” Huh? Mitt’s not making sense. ‪@ofadebates#Obama2012‬

Howard Fineman ‏@howardfineman
Mitt balanced the budget of the Olympics with federal money
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
“Of course they add up.” That’s a statement that should come back to haunt Mitt. ‪@ofadebates‬ ‪#Obama2012‬

John Aravosis ‏@aravosis
Woah, Romney’s numbers just plummeted to rock bottom among CNN’s insta-focus group while he was interrupting Candy.
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Russ Gordon ‏@CDNz1
‪@philipsturner‬ ‪@OFADebates‬ I was thinking selfish pouty child.‪#Obama2012‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Taegan Goddard ‏@politicalwire
Romney doesn’t do testy very well. The trend lines are sinking fast on CNN…
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Brent Colburn ‏@cbrentcolburn
At least he isn’t just interrupting the President–its the moderator, too–that coolness under pressure ‪#RealRomney‬
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
“‪@thegarance‬: Mitt Romney’s debate message to America: I do what I want, to hell with the rules. ‪#debate‬” It ain’t pretty.

Andrew Kaczynski ‏@BuzzFeedAndrew
Candy Crowley will not be Jim Lehrered.
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
Mitt’s coming off as a condescending jerk. ‪@ofadebates#Obama2012‬

Markos Moulitsas ‏@markos
I like this Obama much better.
Retweeted by Philip Turner

Philip Turner ‏@philipsturner
PBO’s on his game. Mitt seems weak, and smarmy, Also, tried gaming Candy Crowley, but she wouldn’t have it. ‪@OFADebates#Obama2012‬

 

Weird Moment Today

Got off the bus in midtown Manhattan today, right in front of Rockefeller Center. Walking toward my lunch destination, I suddenly noticed a familiar male face from the news. Black hair, dark complexion, very self-satisfied look on his face, even a smug expression, carrying a big shopping bag in his right hand. “Oh, jeez, it’s one of Mitt Romney’s many sons,” I realized, suddenly remembering that the Romney campaign is having a three-day NYC retreat for donors.

Update: I later established that the Romney I saw in midtown Manhattan was Craig Romney. It was a strange moment, especially seeing his smug expression.

Stunning Video on Sensata, Company Currently Suffering the Bain Treatment

I’ve been hearing about Sensata, one of the many manufacturing companies that Bain has wrecked, and that they’re closing their Freeport, Illinois plant and moving the jobs China. This video, made by the union of the United Steel Workers, tells the whole story from the workers’ POV in about six minutes. For a briefing on Sensata, here’s coverage from editorial writer Chuck Sweeny in the Rockford Register Star (IL). Unlike many of the wreckages created by Bain that have been covered during the presidential campaign, Sensata is unique in that the workers there have not all lost their jobs yet. Unbelievably, they have found themselves training some of their Chinese replacements. The end is supposed to come later this year, not until after the election. Watch the video, and bring a tissue.

Demolition Derby on Debate Day/Part II

Afternoon update to my morning post on the latest fact-check from Glenn Kessler at The Washington Post debunking Romney’s unsupported and dishonest claim that he’d create 12 million jobs in four years. Kessler gave Mitt’s claim the dreaded “Four Pinocchios” after which the Obama for America campaign released the following statement by National Press Secretary Ben LaBolt:

“In yet another instance of Mitt Romney’s campaign not telling the truth, it turns out that the numbers behind his ‘jobs plan’ just don’t add up. For months, Romney has pledged to create 12 million jobs over his first term—a number economists project will be created under current policy—but the numbers he’s cited for his claims aren’t based on evaluations of his plan and are ‘squishy’ at best. Mitt Romney thinks he can run out the clock by not coming clean about policy details, but the American people deserve the truth about his plans. And the truth is that economists have concluded that the severe cuts he would make like education, research and development, manufacturing and infrastructure could eliminate 1 million jobs and shrink economic growth by 1 percent.”

The supporting sources for his tax ‘plan’ have never squared with his rhetoric and claims. Turns out the same is true of his jobs ‘plan.’ This pretty much tells the full tale of the Romney campaign–claims not supported by evidence or the truth. Just 3 hours till debate time, it’s so clear that President Obama must indict Romney for his athletic and ambidextrous falsehoods and deceptions. Do it tonight, please!

 

Demolition Derby on Debate Day

If President Obama does as well in demolishing Mitt Romney in tonight’s debate as the material I’ve found online so far today does it could be a very good night for DEMs and the president.

In the Plum Line this morning Greg Sargent points to an analysis by his Washington Post colleague Glenn Kessler debunking the notion that Mitt Romney’s jobs plan would create 12M jobs over the next four years, documenting in fact that it’s all built on a bogus foundation. It’s amazing that the Romney campaign would point reporters to material that doesn’t actually support their case. What did they imagine–that no one would be reviewing the sources?

In addition, the Obama campaign offers this incisive video of President Clinton demolishing Mitt Romney’s tax cut fictions.

I will be away from my desk a large part of the day, but will add to this post or do additional ones before the debate tonight as I find more material in the above vein.

A Beautiful Saturday at Brooklyn’s Green-wood Cemetery

Green-wood Cemetery is a NYC landmark I’ve been keen to visit for years and last weekend an ideal opportunity arrived for my wife and son and myself to finally get there. The complex, 478 acres of rolling hills (making it more than half the size of Manhattan’s Central Park), big hardwood trees, and sparkling views of Manhattan and NY Harbor, was founded in 1838 as a non-denominational burial ground that also offered what was described then as a “rural” location. To the urbanites who conceived Green-wood*, it was important to create a pastoral, soothing place for mourners to say goodbye to their loved ones. The three of us discovered on Saturday that it is still pastoral and still a balm to the daily cares of city-dwellers.

Among its more than “560,000 permanent residents”–as Green-wood’s literature refers to those interred there–is Louis Moreau Gottschalk (1829-69), a New Orleans composer and pianist whose kinetic and tuneful music provided our nation’s first examples of such styles as ragtime and stride piano, amid a fusion of African, Haitian, and Cuban rhythms joined with Western music. I get periodic emails from Green-wood and had learned from one message that in the 1970s, a memorial figure then gracing Gottschalk’s burial plot had been vandalized and destroyed. Saturday had been announced as the unveiling of a new figure at his gravesite. Not satisfied to merely place it there, Green-wood planned a program of live piano music in the bright autumn air, played and presented by John Davis; a talk by Frederick Starr, former president of Oberlin College and author of the Gottschalk biography, Bamboula!; an introduction of the sculptors who made the new figure; and finally, the unveiling of “The Angel of Music.” All this was offered to the public free of admission charge.

We emerged from the ‘R’ subway stop at 25th Street and 4th Avenue in Brooklyn, walking a block east toward 5th Avenue and Green-wood. Even before reaching the cemetery, we spotted a cool-looking complex of low buildings. Fenced around on all sides, this establishment was topped with a sign reading “McGovern Weir.” We wondered if it had been a business selling gravestones and monuments, though have since learned from the blog “Lost New York City” that it was for many years a florist. This handsome old wreck of a place was constructed in 1880, and was bought for $1.6M by Green-wood in April.

Walking past the Green-wood gatehouse we were met by a friendly young woman whom we’d later see again selling books from an outdoor kiosk. Here, she was handing out programs for the Gottschalk event. Ewan and I made it up the hill first where we saw the crowd gathered, with Kyle a bit behind taking pictures. Soon the three of us were settled comfortably on a grassy slope just a few yards from where a shiny black Steinway piano–lent by the Steinway company, whose forebears are buried at Green-wood–sat gleaming in the sun. Just the novelty of seeing a grand piano outdoors was exciting.

Green-wood President Richard J. Moylan quickly introduced John Davis, who, as he removed his gloves against the chill said he hoped we wouldn’t think he was pulling a pre-performance trick as Gottschalk was wont to do–carefully pulling off his white gloves one finger at a time as he sought to draw the attention of his audience to the very hands that were about to strike the piano keys. Davis launched in to his first Gottschalk selection, “Bamboula,” a sprightly piece based on a Creole song that warmed up the audience. One could hear shades of Chopin, as well as an anticipation of melodies that we’d later identify with Stephen Foster. Introducing “Danse Cubane,” he described Gottschalk as the “father of world music” and the first classical composer in America to break away from an exclusively European model. All this reminded me of what a relatively enlightened and open urban culture New Orleans was in the first half of the 19th century, with free people of color landing up there from the Caribbean and South America. Gottschalk, with a German-Jewish father and a Haitian mother, tapped into and reflected influences from the New World and the Old. Davis also amazed us when he described that in 1938–around 80 years after the peak of Gottschalk’s influence–Jelly Roll Morton wrote of “the Latin tinge” that pervaded his music, in a thread of influence that began with Gottschalk. Davis closed this part of the performance by evoking Mark Twain’s partiality toward the banjo and then playing one of Gottschalk’s signature compositions for solo piano, “The Banjo,” which thoroughly commingled African, Caribbean and European motifs. Here I’m glad to insert the front and back cover of an LP I acquired in the 1980s, with the music of Gottschalk played by Edward Gold. It still sounds great!

With these sounds still echoing in our ears, the program moved through Frederick Starr’s biographical presentation and the introduction of sculptors, Giancarlo Biagi and Jill Burkee. They bid us to walk a few yards along the slope to Gottschalk’s gravesite, ringed with a black wrought iron fence. As Mr. Moylan assured us even he had not yet seen the finished cast of “The Angel of Music,” we saw a pedestal in the middle of the grassy square topped with a figure enshrouded in a green tarpaulin. As we stood expectantly, hands reached out to shuck off the tarp, exposing an elegant bronze figure that looked as if it had set there for much longer than just this day. Applause and shouts of congratulations to the sculptors were heard as we all admired the delicate figure.

With that, we went back to our earlier spots as John Davis sat again at the piano, joined by clarinetist Jeffrey Lederer and vocalist April Matthis. The trio performed “Slumber on, Baby Dear,” a lullaby composed by Gottschalk. As a final round of clapping rang out, Richard Moylan invited everyone to Green-wood’s nearby chapel where refreshments and coffee would be served. We walked down the hill and around the property to the chapel. Along the way, we stopped at the book kiosk where maps of Green-wood are also available. There we asked the same young woman who’d greeted us earlier if she could possibly help us determine where we’d find the grave of one’s of Green-wood’s “permanent residents,”  Thomas C. Durant, who was instrumental in building the trans-continental railroad in the years immediately after the Civil War, and through his corruption became embroiled in the infamous Credit Mobilier scandal of the post-Civil War years. We’d learned about the real-life Durant from the TV series, “Hell on Wheels,” a fictional treatment of the building of the railroad, in which the Irish actor Colm Meaney plays the striving rail baron. One plot thread in the TV series–which is actually true to history, as far as I can tell–is that Durant had corruptly enriched himself at the expense of the US government and investors in the railroad, and very possibly ended his life in some disrepute. In the program, he runs his enterprise with a great deal of secrecy and intrigue, and again, this seems to conform with what I’ve read about the real Durant. Colm Meaney’s Durant is a scheming, self-interested, angry figure who, I daresay, most TV viewers come to distrust and even loathe. The friendly greeter-bookseller helped us locate Durant’s burial plot number and we made a note on our map, indicating where we ought to be able to find Durant’s memorial.

Following some coffee and a snack in the chapel, a vaulted space where mourners at Green-wood gather for indoor memorial services, we thanked our hosts and walked toward Section H, Lot 10400, in search of Durant. After passing some beautiful Civil War-era memorials, we hunted around for quite a while, to no avail. Growing frustrated, but no less determined, and refusing to leave disappointed, the three of kept walking and looking until I finally found a mausoleum bearing the legend, “T.C. Durant.” The form of the memorial was entirely in keeping with the Durant we’ve come to know from the program and our research. Sealed up tight behind a gated door flashing spear points, a stolid and impregnable edifice squats in the brow of a low hill, with trees looming protectively over it. Like the man interred there, it gives off no secrets and yields virtually no information. It doesn’t even use his full first or middle names, no year or birthplace is etched in the stone, and likewise no death date, though we’d read it was 1871. In the dappled light of mid-afternoon, we found it was even difficult to photograph the letters of his name mounted above the gate, and had to take many pictures before we got images that decently bear the legend of Durant’s initials and last name. The successful outcome to our searching left us with more questions than answers about the real Thomas Durant, and we will continue trying to learn about him what we can.

With that, we walked back toward the gatehouse and out on to the ordinary streets of a quiet Saturday in Brooklyn, grateful for the fine program celebrating Gottschalk put on this special day, and struck by the charm and splendor of Green-wood Cemetery, a bucolic urban retreat we hope to return to soon. I hope these photos, most of them taken by my wife Kyle Gallup, will give you some sense of the occasion. And, if you can, check out the music of Louis Moreau Gottschalk, a worldly musical pleasure.

*Green-wood shares the hyphen in its name with the New-York Historical Society, a particularly 19th century sort of spelling.
Please click through to see all photos.