Where Things Stand in Florida as Early Voting Begins

Saturday evening bring this update on early voting in Florida today, from Alex Leary in the Tampa Bay Times: 

“The Obama campaign seems quite happy after record turnouts were reported in counties across Florida today, the first day of early voting.
The Times‘ Adam Smith reported on Twitter, ‘More than 20k pple voted eary today so far in Hillsborough Co…In 08 biggest single day (11/1/08) was 18,736.’ The Miami Herald‘s Marc Caputo tweeted, ‘Miami-Dade early voting so heavy that by 3 pm 14,745 people voted — more than ENTIRE first day of 08 EV (12,000). 12-hour total: 22,625.’ Gary Fineout of the AP, ‘Leon County – a Democratic stronghold in Fla – had a record turnout for early voting with 5447 votes cast on day 1.’ Democrats typically have an advantage with early voting, but Republicans have been putting a higher emphasis on its turnout effort this time.”
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Today is the first day for early voting in Florida. Here is a rundown from OBAMA campaign field director Jeremy Bird on where registration and get-out-the-vote efforts are in the state. Key takeaways from Mr. Bird:

“The Florida electorate—just like the rest of the nation’s—has grown much more diverse since 2008:
• Of the over 300,000 Hispanics who have registered to vote since President Obama was elected four years ago, nine out of ten signed up as Democrats or Independents, and only 10 percent registered as Republicans.
• More than 100,000 African-American and Caribbean-American voters registered since November 2008.
• Among those who have cast mail ballots already, 14 percent are African-American, Latino Democrats, or Latino Independents—up from 12 percent at this point in 2008. Latino Republicans have fallen from 7 percent of mail voters at this point in 2008 to just 5 percent today.
• We estimate minority voters will make up more than 30 percent of the vote in Florida this year, up from 28 percent in 2008.”

Here also are some great photos from around the state taken as polling places opened this morning:

Colin Powell Endorses President Obama, Again

In 2008, when former Secretary of State Colin Powell endorsed Senator Barack Obama for president, it was later cited by election observers–along with John McCain’s flailing response to the financial crisis and his disastrous selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate–to have been one of the keys that decisively tilted the election toward the Democrat. Throughout the current election cycle, pundits have been wondering what choice the former general would make, or if he would make any endorsement at all. This morning, he ended the suspense by telling Charlie Rose on the CBS morning program that he will again be voting for President Obama, and he explained why. Below is video, followed by a transcript and analysis. 

 

ROSE: Will you endorse President Obama this race? 



POWELL: Well, you know I voted for him in 2008 and I plan to stick with him in 2012, and I’ll be voting for he and for Vice President Joe Biden next month.
 
ROSE: That’s an endorsement for President Obama for re-election?



POWELL: Yes. And let me say why. When he took over the country was in very, very difficult straits, we were in one of the worst recessions we had seen in recent times, close to a depression. The fiscal system was collapsing. Wall Street was in chaos. We had 800,000 jobs lost in that first month of the Obama administration and unemployment would peak a few months later at 10%. So we were in real trouble. The auto industry was collapsing. The housing industry was starting to collapse, and we were in very difficult straits. And I saw over the next several years stabilization come back in the financial community, housing is now starting to pick up after four years, it’s starting to pick up. Consumer confidence is rising. So I think generally we’ve come out of the dive and we’re starting to gain altitude. It doesn’t mean we are problem solved, there are lots of problems still out there. The unemployment rate is too high. People are still hurting in housing. But I see that we are starting to rise up. I also saw the President get us out of one war, start to get us out of a second war and did not get us into any new wars. And finally, I think that the actions he’s taken with respect to protecting us from terrorism have been very, very solid. And so I think we ought to keep on the track that we are on. With respect to Governor Romney, I have the utmost respect to him but as I listen to what his proposals are especially with respect to dealing with our most significant issue, the economy, it’s essentially let’s cut taxes and compensate for that with other things. But that compensation does not cover all of the cuts intended or the new expenses associated with defense.

From later in the interview, Greg Sargent points out in Plum Line, “Perhaps the most interesting part of the interview came when Powell hit Romney on trust,” an aspect of Romney’s character that the Obama campaign has been seeking to undermine: 

Powell: I have concerns about [Romney’s] views on foreign policy. The Governor, who was speaking on Monday night at the debate, was saying things that were quite different from what he said earlier. So I’m not quite sure which Governor Romney we would be getting with respect to foreign policy….It’s a moving target. One day he has a certain strong view about staying in Afghanistan, but then on Monday night he agrees with the withdrawal. Same thing in Iraq. On almost every issue that was discussed on Monday night, Governor Romney agreed with the President, with some nuances. But this is quite a different set of foreign policy views than he had earlier in the campaign. And my concern, which I’ve expressed previously in a public way, is that sometimes I don’t sense that he has thought through these issues as thoroughly as he should have, and he gets advice from his campaign staff that he then has to adjust to modify as he goes along.”

The conclusion of Sargent’s analysis: 

“The Obama camp now has video of Powell making the case that Romney isn’t being forthright about his foreign policy proposals, an arena in which voters presumably want to see evidence of steady leadership. Many pundits have argued that Romney did manage to reassure voters with his Monday performance, by clearing what they like to call a “commander in chief threshold.” But Powell has now directly undermined this case, too; expect this to be incorporated into Obama’s larger closing case against his GOP challenger.

I’m not sure if Colin Powell’s endorsement this year will carry quite as much weight as the first time around, but it could be influential, specifically in the way highlighted by Greg Sargent.

Sarah Silverman’s Latest Campaign Ad (One that’s Not Bawdy)

This 2-minute video (which will be paired down to a 30-second ad for broadcast TV) tells the true story of how the Obama administration has been a loyal ally to Israel, notwithstanding what Romney and the Repubs have been saying for months. Though I have been disappointed with the Netanyahu government’s stance on many issues, I believe in a second Obama term, the prospects for Middle East peace would be increased, as parties in the region see that the Obama administration can be an honest broker of a two-state solution. This is the latest campaign effort from Silverman’s group, The Great Schlep.

Catching You Up On Campaign Posts & News

With the pace of the fall election campaign being so intense, I’m doing a link summary here to help keep readers informed who may not see items when I first post them, and would like to get caught up. These are all my 2012 campaign posts since Tuesday morning, from most recent to oldest.

Please, Media, ask Mitt: “Where Do You Stand on the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act?”

What the Debate Snap Polls Looked Like this Morning

Mitt Was Dishonest on How He Appointed Women to His MA Cabinet 

How PBO Won Debate #2 

Weird Moment Today

Stunning Video on Sensata, Company Currently Suffering the Bain Treatment

Demolition Derby on Debate Day/Part II 

Demolition Derby on Debate Day

 

What the Debate Snap Polls Looked Like this Morning

We are correctly warned by knowledgeable election-watchers not to put much trust in instant polls conducted immediately after debates as they may tend to have screwy samples, but seeing a collection of seven of them all trending in the same direction, confirms what I sensed during and after last night’s tilt between President Obama and Mitt Romney: the president was a big-time winner. Please look at this screenshot I made of a tweet by @MiddleAmericaMS, whom I thank for collecting this info. Averaging the margin by which PBO won all 7 of these surveys yields a definitive 23-point winning gap.

Mitt Was Dishonest On How He Appointed Women to his MA Cabinet

Not only did Mitt utter that ridiculous expression “Binders full of women,” even more substantively he fibbed in claiming that he requested his gubernatorial staff find women for him to consider for his incoming administration. David Bernstein has written about this overnight in a Boston Phoenix column:

Not a true story.

What actually happened was that in 2002 — prior to the election, not even knowing yet whether it would be a Republican or Democratic administration–a bipartisan group of women in Massachusetts formed MassGAP to address the problem of few women in senior leadership positions in state government. There were more than 40 organizations involved with the Massachusetts Women’s Political Caucus (also bipartisan) as the lead sponsor. . . .

Secondly, a UMass-Boston study found that the percentage of senior-level appointed positions held by women actually declined throughout the Romney administration, from 30.0% prior to his taking office, to 29.7% in July 2004, to 27.6% near the end of his term in November 2006. (It then began rapidly rising when Deval Patrick took office.)
Third, note that in Romney’s story as he tells it, this man who had led and consulted for businesses for 25 years didn’t know any qualified women, or know where to find any qualified women. So what does that say?

Because of the humor Mitt inadvertently his absurd image that evoked women somehow enmeshed in binders–which instantly grew into a hashtag and trending topic on Twitter–the saliency of his remark is likely to be heightened the fact he didn’t actually make a proactive effort to hire women, and didn’t even tell the truth in relating the (bogus) story.

H/t TPM for tipping me to Bernstein’s column.